Field notes

Notes from building a synthetic population

Method write-ups, results we can show, and the parts of this that do not work yet. Written by the people building it.

5,220 synthetic Swiss voters answered the ballot question 11 days before the vote. Among the decided, 35% say Yes, below every published poll.

We built the 100-journalist jury as a synthetic audience, ran the ballot, and put the podium out 47 days before the ceremony.

Asking a model to act like a 34-year-old shopper gives you one voice. Here is what has to happen before you get a distribution.

A forecast published 13 days before the federal vote, built from a synthetic Swiss electorate rather than polling.

Method notes, study results, and product news.